Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has acknowledged that an AI bubble is a real possibility and even compared it to past bubbles like the Railroad Mania and the dot-com bubble. However, Zuckerberg also stated that not investing heavily in AI would be a greater mistake because it could lead to missing the advent of “superintelligence.”
When asked about the growing talk of the AI industry being in a bubble in an episode of the Access podcast, Zuckerberg answered, “I think it’s quite possible.”
Zuckerberg pointed out past bubbles like the 19th-century railroad mania and the 1990s dot-com bubble, where companies borrowed heavily to build infrastructure that outpaced demand. When a reality check hit them due to recessions or slower adoption, many of them couldn’t service their debt and went out of business. However, the physical networks created during the bubbles later proved invaluable.
“I think it’s impossible to predict what will happen here. There are compelling arguments for why AI could be an outlier. If the models keep growing in capability year over year and demand keeps growing, then maybe there is no collapse. But there is definitely a possibility, based on past large infrastructure buildouts and how they led to bubbles, that something like that could happen here,” Zuckerberg added.
Zuckerberg, however, still believes in heavily spending on AI, saying, “If we end up misspending a couple hundred billion dollars, that’s going to be very unfortunate obviously. But I would say the risk is higher on the other side.”
Sam Altman on AI bubble:
The comments made by Zuckerberg echo a similar sentiment shown by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman just a few weeks back.
While referring to AI as a kernel of truth in an interaction with The Verge, Altman said, “When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth.”
“Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes. Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes,” he added.
Not everyone, however, is convinced that the AI industry is in a bubble. For instance, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt believes that it’s much more likely that we are witnessing a whole new “industrial structure.”
“I think it’s unlikely based on my experience that this is a bubble. It’s much more likely that you’re seeing a whole new industrial structure,” Schmidt said a few months back
