(Bloomberg Opinion) — You know, it could just be a coincidence. On the eve of Apple Inc.’s World Wide Developers’ Conference, a new paper from the company’s own researchers poured some cold water over some of the artificial-intelligence hype.
The study argues that the advanced reasoning models, heralded by some as a new frontier for how AI “thinks,” fall well short of expectations. When a problem becomes sufficiently complex, the team of six researchers wrote, the models suffered a “complete accuracy collapse.” It examined top efforts from OpenAI, Google and and Anthropic — three AI makers considered several furlongs ahead of Apple in the AI race.
As I say — perhaps it’s just a coincidence. And the debate around the paper’s conclusions are only just starting. But it’s certainly useful that it arrived just as the iPhone maker’s perceived failing to build competitive AI capabilities comes back into sharp focus as third-party Apple developers descend on San Jose on Monday for the annual pilgrimage, with many more joining remotely.
WWDC isn’t typically the venue for Apple’s biggest product launches. But it is a chance for Apple to get developers hyped on some experimental ideas. The Vision Pro mixed-reality headset was unveiled at WWDC in 2023, and last year’s event was about the long-awaited reveal of Apple’s answer to ChatGPT and the rest: Apple Intelligence.
The tone of this year’s WWDC will be markedly different for one obvious reason: Apple has embarrassed itself. Many of the Apple Intelligence upgrades the company outlined in 2024 have yet to materialize on users’ devices, with the company forced to quietly stop running ads that suggested the features were imminent. The bells and whistles that did get released were underwhelming, buggy or both. Backed into a corner, by Wall Street or just competitive instincts against its peers, Apple looked to be in a bit of a scramble.
But it’s yesterday’s news to say that Apple is behind on AI. Investors know that, and the shortcomings have already been priced in; just one of several factors contributing to Apple’s share price drop of 19% so far this year. (That would have made it the worst performer in the Magnificent Seven were it not for the Trump-Musk feud’s fallout on Tesla Inc. last week.)
Today’s story is instead about whether Apple can convincingly talk its way around its glaring deficit. That job will fall on the shoulders of Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook, who could be forgiven for being distracted as Apple contends with the continued unpredictabilities of the continuing trade war.
Instead of any significant AI announcements, according to Bloomberg News’ chief Apple whisperer, Mark Gurman, attendees will be walked through a revised visual language for its apps, an upgrade to its Mac OS operating system, a new games offering and a smattering of other tweaks. There could, of course, be a “one more thing” surprise, but it seems highly unlikely. More so than any significant Apple event in recent memory, this year’s WWDC keynote seems set to be a snoozefest, a placeholder for more significant progress to come next year.
Apple’s muted WWDC will stand in stark contrast to the buzz created around the recent announcement that ex-Apple design guru Jony Ive was working on a device with OpenAI. That will take time to materialize, if it ever does. More urgent is the threat from Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Microsoft Corp. and Amazon.com Inc., which all seem closer to creating the breakthrough AI personal assistant that science fiction has promised us for so long.
So it serves a useful purpose, then, to put out a research paper diminishing others’ AI progress. Apple doesn’t seem able to speed up, so it might as well take a shot at slowing others down. And indeed, we might look back in five or 10 years and concede Apple was entirely correct in its reservations.
Taking that thought a step further, one way to spin the situation to its benefit, as discussed by analysts at Evercore ISI recently, might be for Apple executives to make more of the fact that while Apple hasn’t produced any groundbreaking AI achievements compared with its peers, it hasn’t thrown tens of billions of dollars at the pursuit either.
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This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Dave Lee is Bloomberg Opinion’s US technology columnist. He was previously a correspondent for the Financial Times and BBC News.
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