- A new study exploring Elon Musk’s political activism reveals just how much it’s hurt Tesla.
- Researchers estimated that at least 1 million EV sales were wiped out from Tesla’s U.S. deliveries from October 2022 to April 2025.
- Sales for other EV makers increased by up to 22%.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s political crash out has been painful to watch. His public endorsement of U.S. President Donald Trump and spearheading role in the controversial Department of Government Efficiency (which was linked to more than 280,000 layoffs) earned Musk—and Tesla—a negative reputation amongst left-leaning voters in the U.S.
A new study by Yale scholars at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reveals just how much of an impact that reputation had on Tesla’s sales. As it turns out, since Musk bought Twitter, his political meddling has cost Tesla more than a million vehicle sales while also boosting the number of EVs and hybrids sold by competitors.
Photo by: White House
The researchers analyzed EV registration trends across counties in the U.S. from 2020 until 2025, tracking sales across political lines during the time frame. Before 2022, Tesla sales were booming everywhere. But like clockwork, when Musk bought Twitter in October 2022 and used it as a way to amplify his “free speech absolutism” and alliance with the Republican party, things started to go downhill—especially in blue counties.
In total, the study estimates that Tesla would have sold 1 million to 1.26 million more units between October 2022 and April 2025 in the U.S.—67-83% more than it did. It directly attributes that loss of sales to Musk’s “polarizing and partisan actions.”
The study was first spotted by Electrek.
Those actions didn’t just cost Tesla sales, either—they also gave a boost to the competition. The study estimates that sales of competitors’ electric and hybrid cars increased by up to 22% (1.26 million units), during the same time period. That’s because people who didn’t buy Teslas flocked to other brands. Keep in mind that this is before the Q3 EV tax credit boom that brought record EV sales to automakers across the board.
Zoom in, and the effect is even greater. “By the first quarter of 2025, we find that without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla monthly sales would have been about 150 percent higher,” the study said.
Photo by: InsideEVs
The researchers dub this a textbook case of “CEO activism,” but with an exceptionally expensive twist. Musk’s political realignment, which included $300 million in campaign donations to Republican candidates, turned Tesla ownership into a political statement of its own. And that contributed greatly to Tesla’s flailing sales over the last couple of years. In 2024, Tesla had its first down year of vehicle deliveries in over a decade. And it’s on track for another year without growth in 2025.
Polls cited in the study also make it crystal clear that there’s a political divide amongst the public and buyers. Between March 2021 and April 2025, the percentage of Democrats with a negative view of Musk increased from 28% to 92%, while those with a positive view decreased from 21% to just 4%. During the same time, Republicans viewing Musk favorably rose from 30% to 75%.
The takeaway? While Tesla might have an issue with folks feeling that its cars are aging a bit quickly, it has other fish to fry too. Tesla’s biggest problem may be that its CEO has warped its once untouchable appeal amongst global EV brands.
NBER’s paper includes a famous quote from Michael Jordan in the early ’90s that may serve as a lesson for Musk: “Republicans buy sneakers, too.” Unfortunately for Tesla, they’re clearly not buying EVs in a way that makes up for the Democrats that have defected from the brand.
