- S&P Global Mobility predicts global EV sales will go up 30% in 2025 compared to this year.
- The U.S. is expected to see EV sales increase by 36%. Figures in Europe and India are set to go even higher.
Electric vehicles will be just fine in 2025, according to the respected auto industry analysts at S&P Global Mobility. Despite some carmakers scaling back their EV goals and the uncertainties related to the $7,500 federal tax credit in the United States, EV sales are expected to grow considerably next year.
As per the auto research firm, all-electric vehicle sales are expected to grow by 29.9% globally next year. The projections say 15.1 million EVs will be sold around the world in 2025, up from the estimated 11.6 million EVs this year–an increase in market share from 13.2% to 16.7%.
By contrast, the same estimations say global light vehicle production will go down by 0.4% for a total of 88.7 million units. “The auto industry continues to navigate uncertain terrain as we enter 2025, particularly as we anticipate President-elect Trump’s incoming universal tariffs,” said Mark Fulthorpe, executive director of global light vehicle forecasting for S&P Global Mobility. “During 2025, the production landscape will change dramatically, as global trade slows, and as retaliatory measures are likely to emerge.”
China is expected to end 2025 with the world’s largest EV market share–29.7%. However, out of all the regions in S&P Global Mobility’s predictions, China is expected to record the smallest year-over-year change in market share–19.7%.
The United States is next on the list, with a predicted EV market share of 11.2% at the end of 2025, an increase of 36% from 2024. Central and Western Europe, despite some troubles this year, are expected to end 2025 with an EV market share of 20.4%, a 43.4% jump.
S&P Global Mobility estimates for EV sales in 2025
| Region | EV share estimate at the end of 2025 | Year-over-year change (2025 vs. 2024) |
| Central and Western Europe | 20.4% | 43.4% |
| United States | 11.2% | 36% |
| China | 29.7% | 19.7% |
| India | 7.5% | 117% |
| Global | 16.7% | 29.9% |
India, however, is set to double the number of electric vehicles on its roads next year, with a projected market share of 7.5% in December 2025–a 117% spike compared to 2024.
These are all very optimistic numbers, but it’s worth noting once again that they are projections. We’ll have to wait and see what happens, specifically in the U.S. where the federal EV incentive is expected to go away soon, which could complicate things for automakers and buyers alike.
