The number of humanoid robots in use could reach three billion by 2060. With the global population projected at 10.07 billion that year (source: Worldometer), that’s one robot for every three of us. What might this shift mean for human employment, identity and purpose?
What do the stars foretell about robots?
Humanoid robot ownership could touch 3 billion units by 2060, says a new Bank of America (BofA) report. Midjourney founder David Holz predicts 1 billion humanoids on Earth by the 2040s and 100 billion in the solar system by the 2060s—an idea endorsed by Elon Musk. Sun Microsystems co-founder Vinod Khosla sees 1 billion bipedal robots by 2040.
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Morgan Stanley forecasts sales of 900,000 units by 2030. Macquarie expects 6.3 million robots and a $139 billion market by 2035. Citigroup projects a $7 trillion market by 2050, while Goldman Sachs sees a $38 billion market by 2035 as robot density surges.
Why are they all so bullish?
As human labour costs rise, humanoid robots are becoming cheaper—and global investments are surging, from $308 million in 2020 to $1.1 billion in 2024, according to Bain & Co. These robots can now walk, jump and are getting smarter with advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and generative AI. BofA predicts they’ll take 20% of industrial and 50% of service jobs by 2060, and even outnumber cars. SNS Insider values the market at $2.21 billion in 2023, projected to reach $76.97 billion by 2032, with Japan, China and the US leading adoption in elder care, defence, retail, manufacturing and logistics.
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How much do humanoid robots cost?
BofA says humanoid robot hardware will cost $35,000 per unit by end-2025, dropping to $13,000-17,000 by 2030-2035 due to scale and improved components. Meanwhile, the robots-as-a-service (RaaS) model that offers access via cloud-based subscriptions is making robots more affordable for smaller firms that can’t bear high upfront costs.
How will this impact the workforce?
Bain & Co. expects robots to handle a wide range of physical tasks at costs equal to or lower than human labour within five years. Raising a child costs $100,000-300,000 and takes 20 years in the US (RethinkX), while a humanoid robot could be deployed in a year for the price of a budget car. By 2035, a million robots could enter the workforce for just $10 billion. Macquarie predicts robots may become as essential to families as cars, with widespread home use expected from the late 2030s to 2050s.
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A C-3PO in every home sounds pretty good…
Something like the Star Wars droid could be yours for a price. As the young prioritize work-life balance, firms may get humanoid robots to fill labour and skill gaps. But AI-powered humanoids such as Tesla’s Optimus, Boston Dynamics’ Atlas, Xiaomi’s CyberOne and India’s Vyommitra raise questions on accountability, legal status (Hanson Robotics’ Sophia is a Saudi citizen), rights and the potential for bias. Futurist Ray Kurzweil believes humans could achieve a million-fold intelligence by 2045 with chips embedded in our brains.
