Strong iPhone 17 Sales Could Propel Apple to the Top of the Smartphone Market, Ahead of Samsung: Report

Apple is on track to lead the global smartphone market by 5, as a report from a market research firm. The tech giant is predicted to secure a 19.4% market share, surpassing Samsung in smartphone shipments. Meanwhile, Chinese OEMs may face challenges due to a slowing domestic market and supply chain issues.

As stated in the Smartphone Market Outlook Tracker by Counterpoint Research, global smartphone shipments are anticipated to rise by 3.3% YoY in 2025. Apple is projected to ship over 243 million iPhones, giving it a 19.4% share. The iPhone 17 series has bolstered Apple’s growth with adjustments in memory and pricing.

Apple’s Strategic Moves Boost Market Share

The iPhone 17 saw sales in the US soar by 12% compared to its predecessor, the iPhone 16, in the initial four weeks post-launch. In China, this figure was even higher, with an 18% increase. These figures support forecasts that Apple may finally surpass Samsung in global smartphone shipments by 2025, a feat last achieved 14 years ago.

Samsung is predicted to hold the second spot with an 18.7% market share, marking a 5% YoY growth. This growth is supported by its supply chain effectively managing tariff impacts. Strategic enhancements to the Galaxy A-Series, such as improved specs and pricing, could strengthen Samsung’s presence in regions like India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East and Africa.

Challenges Ahead for Chinese OEMs

Despite strong projections, Samsung might not regain its position as the top OEM globally from 2025 through 2029, due to rising competition from Chinese OEMs in the mid-lower segment. Counterpoint’s report forecasts a challenging period for these Chinese manufacturers, with ongoing supply-chain issues hindering expansion.

The report notes a significant shortage of LPDDR4 memory and soaring memory component prices. Chinese brands, including Xiaomi, Transsion Holdings, Vivo, and Oppo, are expected to grow by just 1.7% YoY. These brands are increasingly looking to overseas markets like India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America for growth.

Focus Shifts to Value-Oriented Growth

These Chinese manufacturers are shifting from volume-driven strategies to focusing on value-oriented growth. The report highlights the potential for growth in international markets, suggesting a strategic pivot away from domestic reliance.

The global smartphone landscape in 2025 is set to be competitive, with Apple potentially leading the charge and Chinese OEMs adjusting strategies to overcome supply chain and market challenges. This shift in dynamics underscores the evolving nature of the global smartphone industry.