When the news broke that Ford was considering killing the F-150 Lightning, I was hardly surprised. Anyone looking closely can see the cracks in the electric truck market, with heavy incentives and steep depreciation largely the norm. So why aren’t consumers biting on the Lightning? According to one expert, it’s certainly not for lack of interest.
“First and foremost, this is not a Ford exclusive thing,” Brent Gruber, who leads the EV practice at the market research firm J.D. Power, told me. “I think most manufacturers who made EV products felt that the product underperformed.”
He continued: “What was different for Ford and the F-150 Lightning versus other manufacturers was the interest in the Ford F-150 Lightning is so much higher than most other vehicles. So Ford had a real opportunity to capture a lot of that consumer interest.”
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Source: Ford
That was an opportunity the company didn’t quite capitalize on, as Gruber explained in a recent LinkedIn post. The company has slashed Lightning production targets multiple times. And recently—facing aluminum shortages after a fire at supplier Novelis—Ford chose to idle Lightning production in favor of producing more profitable gas trucks. It’s not exactly a sign of rabid demand.
At the same time, the Lightning has long been one of the most highly sought-after EVs. According to J.D. Power data, it has consistently been either the No. 2 or No. 3 most considered electric vehicle among shoppers.
The only EV models that have ever outranked it are the Toyota bZ4X and Honda Prologue. Awareness of the Lightning is good, then, and the overlap of truck buyers and EV buyers gives it a broad audience to pull from. Despite all of this, though, the Lightning has never gotten close to meeting sales expectations.
Ford initially said it would sell around 40,000 trucks a year, then upped that to 80,000, and then nearly doubled that again to 150,000 units. The reality was a lot less impressive: Last year Ford sold 33,510 Lightnings, despite substantial incentives. That was still enough to make it the best-selling electric truck.
Elon Musk once said that Tesla could sell up to 250,000 units per year. The actual result was about 39,000 in its first year on sale, with sales falling off dramatically since then. Like the Lightning, the Cybertruck launched with a much higher price than initially anticipated.
Photo by: Tesla
“What I can say is that F-150 Lightning is the best-selling electric pickup truck in the U.S.—despite new competition from CyberTruck, Chevy, GMC, Hummer and Rivian—and delivered record sales in Q3,” Ford EV spokesperson Emma Bergg said via email. “Right now, we’re focused on producing F-150 ICE and Hybrid as we recover from the fire at Novelis. We have good inventories of the F-150 Lightning and will bring Rouge Electric Vehicle Center (REVC) back up at the right time, but don’t have an exact date at this time.”
But as I wrote earlier this year, “best-selling electric truck” is not saying much. Electric trucks sales remain a drop in the bucket compared to the stunning number of gas trucks sold last year: 765,000 F-series Ford trucks; some 900,000 Chevy Silverados and GMC Sierras; and over 300,000 Ram Pickups. And it’s no wonder why electric trucks can’t keep up.
Despite the Lightning and Tesla Cybertruck both promising $40,000 starting prices, the real-world entry cost for a modern electric truck is closer to $60,000. If you want the a longer-range battery and the right equipment, you’ll probably spend close to $80,000. Many people simply can’t afford one.
According to Gruber, 70% of people who consider an F-150 Lightning have a household income of $100,000 or less.
“So it’s a high percentage of people who are interested in that product but aren’t necessarily following through to the purchase process, likely in part, due to the cost of that product. That’s interesting,” he said. “It’s a product that, again, really resonated with consumers, but probably fell short from a cost perspective.”
The Chevy Silverado EV is newer in the market, but represents just a fraction of overall Silverado sales. I blame its high cost more than anything else.
Photo by: Mack Hogan/InsideEVs
This tracks with what I hear over and over again: People are interested in electric trucks, but unwilling to pay a premium for them. Gruber noted that many F-150 Lightning shoppers are returning truck or F-150 customers who are looking into whether an electric version makes financial sense. For many of those people, the answer will be no. Even with considerably lower fueling costs, you may never make up the difference in MSRP between a gas truck and a Lightning.
I’d also posit that the gas truck being sold on the same floor doesn’t help. Anyone who seems remotely skeptical of the EV experience can be swiftly shuffled to a gas truck that looks the same and costs less, while likely being more profitable for Ford and certainly being more valuable for the dealer service department.
As a truck and EV fan, I would love to own a Lightning. But I can’t pay sticker price for the one I want, so I’m waiting on a cheap used model.
That’s why the F-150 Lightning is a lesson to the EV industry. In a world where people are uncertain about EVs and confused, it’s not enough to get people’s interest. You have to actually solve the underlying problems holding electrification back.
For truck manufacturers, this is a challenge, as they can’t really solve the cost problem in the short terms. Providing the sort of range and endurance truck buyers expect requires a big, honkin’ battery. Big, honkin’ batteries are expensive. Ergo, electric truck are expensive.
Hybrids are a near-term patchwork solution. They don’t require a lifestyle tradeoff, but also don’t have the best benefits of EVs, like effortless power and zero drivetrain maintenance. Extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) are supposed to tip the balance towards electrification, with a range extending gas engine functioning only as a generator. But we still don’t know what EREV trucks will cost or whether customers will bite.
The long-term solution is building capable trucks at a price that consumers and businesses are willing to pay, and at which the automaker can still make money. That’s Ford’s agenda with its upcoming “skunkworks” affordable truck, and Slate’s play with its bare-bones debut vehicle.
“We’re also looking forward to our Universal EV Platform and the mid-size electric truck coming in 2027 and starting around $30,000,” Bergg said.
The Slate Truck is designed for shoppers who don’t want to pay for an expensive, large truck like the Lightning. We’ll see how it does.
Photo by: Slate
The future, then, is clear. There’s demand for electric trucks, and a pathway to making them at reasonable prices. But what do you do with first-generation designs like the Lightning, which are likely unprofitable and certainly expensive? It’s not clear, and the expiration of federal tax credits and the neutering of emissions regulations makes the future even more uncertain.
“It’s a price sensitive consumer for the F-150 Lightning. So how do they go forward with that product and sell that product? They’re going to have to make sure that they’re hitting the right price point. I look at what Tesla did with the Model Y and the Model 3, and de-contented their products and offered it at a lower cost,” Gruber said. “Is that something that Ford should consider doing? That’s a decision for them to make.”
Contact the author: Mack.Hogan@insideevs.com
